After its RSI went oversold the last time, Ether’s price rebounded by approximately 400%. Will things be different this time?
As per its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) entered “oversold” territory on June 12 for the very first time since November 2018.
This is the last time $ETH went oversold on the weekly (hasn’t confirmed here yet).
I had no followers, but macro bottom ticked it.
Note, you can push way lower on weekly rsi, not trying to catch a bottom. https://t.co/kLCynTKTcS
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) June 12, 2022
ETH is now on the watch for an oversold bounce.
When the RSI reading falls below 30, traditional analysts consider an asset to be oversold.
They also observe the fall as an opportunity to buy the dip, expecting that an oversold signal will indicate a trend reversal.
The last oversold reading for Ether happened in the week ending Nov. 12, 2018, and was followed by a 400 percent price rebound, as illustrated below.
The last RSI’s dip below 30 increases the probability that Ether will see a similar—if not an equally sharp—upside retracement in the future, even though past records are not a determinant of subsequent trends.
Imagine that Ethereum records an oversold bounce.
The next hurdle for the ETH/USD pair would be to claim back its support from the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $1,620.
If it does, bulls may target a prolonged upward movement toward the 50-week EMA (the red wave) above $2,700, which would represent a price increase of about 100% from the price on June 12.
If not, Ether might start to decline again, with $1,120 as the next objective, which further appears to be the token’s 0.782 Fib line, as can be seen in the chart below.
Macro obstacles and a $650 Ether price objective
A flurry of bearish obstacles, ranging from continuously increasing inflation to a classic technical indicator with a falling tilt, appear to be opposing the RSI-based bullish outlook.
In brief, Ether’s price has dropped by more than 20% in the last six days, with the majority of the losses occurring after June 10th, when the US Labor Department revealed that May inflation hit 8.6%, the highest level since December 1981.
Investors are worried that a rising consumer price index (CPI) may push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively while shrinking its $9 trillion balance sheet.
Stocks, Bitcoin (BTC), and Ethereum (ETH) all will suffer the consequences of this reduced interest for riskier assets.
The recent ETH drop, according to independent expert Vince Prince, might last until the value falls $650.
A massive head and shoulders — a classic bearish reversal pattern with an 85 percent success record in hitting its profit goal, according to Samurai Trading Academy — lies at the heart of his downside target.
🚨🚨The massive head-and-shoulder formation forecasted earlier for #Ethereum has now been completely confirmed…
… $ETH is now headed towards the $650 USDT area!!! pic.twitter.com/R2KaqiorEd
— Crypto Vince (@CryptoVince_) June 12, 2022
Furthermore, Checkmate, Glassnode’s primary on-chain analyst, warned of potential decentralized finance (DeFi) disaster that could drive Ether’s price further lower in 2022.
On June 11, the market capitalization ratio between Ethereum and the top three stablecoins increased to 80%, according to the analyst.
Ratio is now at 80%
Market Cap of:#Ethereum = $181.58B
Top 3 Stablecoins = $144.28B
TVL in DeFi = $101.67B$ETH at $1215 makes for equal Ethereum and Top 3 stablecoin market caps.The principle risk here is levered $ETH collateral in DeFi loans getting liquidated in a cascade https://t.co/26u0vXnMMY pic.twitter.com/q555clRaap
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) June 12, 2022
As “most individuals borrow stablecoins” by pledging ETH as collateral, the risk of the Ethereum network depreciating in value relative to the top dollar-pegged tokens would raise the debt’s worth above the collateral.
“Not all stablecoins are borrowed, and not all stablecoins are on Ethereum.However, the risk of liquidations [is] a lot higher now than it was three months ago.”
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