Considering Bitcoin halving events and their impact on market cycles, there are several theories. Some people even believe that there is no connection between the two, but this fresh theory reveals a date that sets out the cycle inflection points.
On September 8, technical analyst “CryptoCon” brought up an estimate about the Bitcoin market cycle which centres around November 28.
The analyst stated that the model has existed since mid-July 2010, which is the beginning of the history of Bitcoin prices.
The first two halvings, which occurred on November 28, 2012, and July 9, 2016, provide the basis for the theory.
“4-year cycles are extracted from Nov 28th, and July 9th marks intra cycle milestones,” he stated.
The significance of the #Bitcoin halving's is undeniable now.
My November 28th Cycles Theory is now only a part of this brand-new model:
The Halving Cycles Theory.
You're going learn everything you need to know about right here.
This model exists from… pic.twitter.com/SSzzfpKTpx
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 7, 2023
Various Halving Cycle Theories
The four years of each cycle have been divided into stages, namely accumulation (green), fair value and establishment of preparation (blue), bull market and new peak (red), and bear market (orange).
Also Read: Crypto Seasonality: Struggling To Deal With It?
Each cycle has pivoted 21 days before or after November 28, the bottom, using these yearly phases.
On this, he added, anticipating future events can also be made, including the prediction that Bitcoin will reach its next early peak 21 days before or after July 9, 2024. The model predicts a cycle top 21 days before or after Nov. 28, 2025.
Currently, BTC is in the cooling bear market phase, according to this theory. Other theories convey that halvings have nothing to do with Bitcoin market cycles.
Industry observer “Pledditor” stated on Sept. 5 that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles are coincidences not connected to halvings.
According to him, the cycles are more closely associated with changes in the global M2 money supply.
“Global M2 money supply has been having its own “4-year cycles” as of late, and those cycles have been reflected in most risk assets, including Bitcoin.”
I continue to believe that #bitcoin's 4 year cycles are just coincidences and have little to do with the halvenings.
Global M2 money supply has actually been having its own "4 year cycles" as of late, and those cycles have been reflected in most risk assets, including bitcoin pic.twitter.com/kMQMNdp9Gq
— Pledditor (@Pledditor) September 5, 2023
M2 is a broad way to measure the total supply of money worldwide. It includes cash, currency, and savings in banks and money market mutual funds that are easy to access.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Bitcoin prices rose 1.8% in 24 hours. Thus, by Friday morning’s Asian trading session, the asset was trading at $26,221. The asset remains in consolidation at around $26K, therefore the move is minor.