As the upcoming halving in April looms on the horizon, Bitcoin is set to become even scarcer, triggering a flurry of bullish predictions from analysts. Renowned technical analyst and creator of the stock-to-flow model, known as “PlanB,” recently asserted that post-halving, “Bitcoin will be scarcer than gold and real estate.”
Despite this bullish sentiment, PlanB tempered expectations by suggesting that Bitcoin’s market capitalization, currently below $1 trillion, may not surpass gold’s $10 trillion, even with increased scarcity
Halving Gains and Market Capitalization Insights
While the anticipation of increased scarcity has triggered BTC price predictions, PlanB remains cautious about Bitcoin’s market capitalization surpassing that of gold, which currently stands at less than $10 trillion. Despite the scarcity, he speculates that Bitcoin’s market cap, presently below $1 trillion, may not reach gold’s level.
It looks like $BTC is printing a bullish pennant. Let's wait for the breakout (currently, it is threatening to break it to the downside instead), but if all goes well, we can see at least 45550. #bitcoin $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/QS0GXB5XVQ
— CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) February 4, 2024
To gauge the potential price surge, basic calculations involving a $10 trillion market cap divided by 20 million coins suggest a Bitcoin price exceeding $500,000. However, the timing of halving gains is a crucial factor, typically recognized a year after the event. This historical context tempers expectations of an immediate and substantial price pump post-April.
Also Read: Bitcoin Halving 2024: A Guide To The Before, During, and After Phases
Bitcoin’s Resilience: Floor Price and Short-Term Outlook
On February 4, PlanB referenced the S2F model and highlighted the Bitcoin 200-week moving average, currently standing at $31,000. Drawing on historical data, the analyst emphasized that Bitcoin has never dropped below this 200-week moving average, leading him to assert that “$31k might be the absolute floor, and Bitcoin might never see $31k ever again.”
Short-term analyses from analysts like “CryptoHamster” point to a bullish pennant chart pattern, with potential breakout threats on the downside. However, an optimistic scenario could propel prices to $45,550.